Interview: EU Goes Rogue Amid Russia-Ukraine War Escalation
Russia-Ukraine War Escalation: EU’s Rogue Actions, Trump’s Flip-Flop, Putin’s Imminent Moves
In the ever-evolving landscape of the Russia-Ukraine war escalation, recent events have thrown the international community into a state of heightened tension. Just as signs pointed toward a possible winding down of the conflict, dramatic shifts in policy and rhetoric from key players have reignited fears of further intensification.
The European Union appears to be pushing boundaries by attempting to legalize the seizure of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s war efforts, while U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s emissaries have endorsed terms that echo Ukraine’s long-standing demands, potentially sabotaging any genuine path to peace. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in a precarious position, with internal pressures mounting for a more aggressive stance. This Russia-Ukraine war escalation could mark a turning point, as diplomacy falters and military options resurface.
The interview between Professor Glenn Diesen and Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, a respected historian and international affairs analyst, sheds light on these developments. Doctorow, author of “War Diaries: The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022-2023,” provides a nuanced perspective on the unfolding drama. Drawing from recent meetings and statements, he highlights how the Russia-Ukraine war escalation is being driven by a combination of Western infighting, legal overreaches, and strategic miscalculations.
One of the most startling aspects is Trump’s apparent flip-flop on Ukraine. Only weeks ago, there was optimism that the incoming U.S. administration might prioritize a swift resolution. However, Trump’s emissaries—Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff—attended a coalition meeting in Berlin led by Friedrich Merz, a strong advocate for using Russian assets to finance the war.
The gathering, dubbed the “coalition of the willing,” resulted in an agreement that reinstates pre-February 2022 conditions, including a de facto NATO presence in Ukraine and security guarantees resembling Article 5 protections. This setup would effectively rebuild Ukraine as a militarized proxy against Russia, complete with an 800,000-strong army financed by the West during “peacetime”—a proposition that flies in the face of Russia’s core security concerns, which prompted the invasion in the first place.
Doctorow suggests this shift isn’t mere inconsistency on Trump’s part but stems from deeper conflicts within U.S. political circles, possibly a revolt on Capitol Hill over national security strategy. By endorsing these terms, Trump positions Russia as the aggressor if they reject the deal, setting the stage for a blame game once Ukraine’s position collapses.
This Russia-Ukraine war escalation tactic could shield Trump from criticism ahead of midterm elections, portraying him as having offered everything Ukraine demanded, only for Europe to fail in delivering the funds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent speech demanding Russia’s capitulation further amplifies this, urging U.S. punishment if Moscow doesn’t comply. Reports indicate preparations for new U.S. sanctions, which could realign America with Europe’s confrontational stance, dragging the conflict deeper.
Turning to Europe, the EU’s actions represent a bold, if reckless, push in the Russia-Ukraine war escalation. Under Ursula von der Leyen, the bloc has invoked emergency powers to indefinitely freeze Russian assets, suspending the need for unanimous six-monthly renewals of sanctions. This move aims to secure a place at the negotiating table and prevent Trump from repurposing the funds. However, it skirts international law, as liberating these assets for non-reimbursable loans to Ukraine would violate Russian ownership rights, inviting lawsuits that Europe might lose.
Surprisingly, Belgium has emerged as a key resistor. Hosting Euroclear, where most of the €210 billion in frozen Russian assets are held, Belgium fears bearing the financial and legal brunt. Bart De Wever, leader of the Flemish nationalist party, has rallied cross-party support, demanding written guarantees from all 27 EU members to share the risks. Backed by Italy, Malta, Bulgaria, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia—seven countries in total—this opposition makes it tough for von der Leyen to override. If she fails, member states would need to fund Ukraine directly through parliamentary approvals, a prospect dimmed by austerity measures and remilitarization costs across Europe.
Doctorow notes that figures like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, often praised for sovereignty rhetoric, have consistently voted with the majority on sanctions, extracting concessions but not blocking them. Belgium’s stance, however, could force a reckoning, potentially leading to Ukraine’s bankruptcy by the first quarter of 2026. In such a scenario, the current Kyiv regime might flee, paving the way for capitulation and a new order.
Putin’s Response in the Russia-Ukraine War Escalation
On the Russian side, these developments have exposed vulnerabilities in Putin’s strategy. His bet on Trump as a pragmatic partner has backfired, validating hardliners like Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who argued diplomacy was exhausted. With Trump proving unreliable due to domestic pressures, Putin faces calls to escalate militarily to resolve the conflict on the battlefield.
Recent Russian actions reflect this Russia-Ukraine war escalation trajectory. Attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure have intensified, bringing it close to collapse, though Russia has refrained from total destruction. Doctorow predicts Putin will “take the low road,” potentially bombing Kyiv or targeting key hubs like Odessa to deny Ukraine Black Sea access. In response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian commercial vessels and energy sites—often with Western assistance—Russia has ramped up aggression around Odessa, plunging it into darkness.
Moreover, shooting down UK spy planes over the Black Sea could send a message to London, seen as a ringleader in anti-Russian efforts. Such moves, while escalatory, are less manpower-intensive than full assaults but could halt targeting data flows to Ukraine. Putin’s recent statements emphasize achieving goals “by diplomacy or war,” signaling readiness for confrontation if peace terms remain untenable.
This phase of the Russia-Ukraine war escalation is particularly dangerous. As victory nears for Russia, assertiveness grows, while Europe’s red-line crossings—open discussions of bringing war into Russia—provoke retaliation. Yet, Doctorow argues Europe lacks the military capacity for a major response, with arsenals depleted after years of underinvestment. Unlike World War I’s matched powers, today’s imbalance deters full-scale war.
European Leadership and Strategic Missteps
Understanding Europe’s role in this Russia-Ukraine war escalation requires examining its leadership. Doctorow criticizes the low caliber of many EU prime ministers, attributing it to diminished national sovereignty within the Union. Positions are stepping stones to Brussels roles, fostering deference to von der Leyen rather than independent strategy.
Examples abound: France’s Emmanuel Macron clings to power amid domestic turmoil, sidelining long-term logic. Denmark’s prime minister has even suggested peace might be more dangerous than war, fearing Russian vengeance post-conflict. Ideological rigidity trumps pragmatism, despite the war’s evident endgame.
Advisors might urge cutting losses—contacting Moscow for a deal to salvage what’s left—but Europe’s commitment deepens. Participating in proxy warfare, killing thousands of Russians, now risks vengeance as Ukraine crumbles. Yet, no pivot emerges, leaving the continent adrift.
Prognosis and Implications
If the EU’s December 18-19 summit fails to unlock funds—amid Belgium’s firm “no”—Ukraine’s collapse accelerates. Doctorow’s optimistic prognosis: war ends by Q1 2026 via bankruptcy and regime change. Russia could claim vast territories, reshaping Eastern Europe.
This Russia-Ukraine war escalation underscores diplomacy’s fragility. Western unity fractures under pressure, while Russia’s resilience shines. As Putin deploys systems like the Oreshnik missile, the stakes rise. The world watches, hoping cooler heads prevail before escalation spirals uncontrollably.
The coming months will test resolve on all sides. With assets frozen, armies rebuilt, and red lines blurred, the Russia-Ukraine war escalation demands urgent reevaluation. Failure to adapt could prolong suffering, eroding global stability.
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