We’re Planning for the Wrong AI Job Disruption https://archive.ph/2026.02.04-151036/https://www.wsj.com/opinion/were-planning-for-the-wrong-ai-job-disruption-2264d219
"Many politicians and commentators assume that if #AI can perform some of a job’s tasks, the role will disappear.
But the distinction between task repricing—when technology can take over all or part of a task—and job destruction isn’t semantic, it is economic. When technology lowers the cost of performing specific tasks by lifting some of the load, firms reorganize production. Workers specialize differently.
… software has automated large portions of bookkeeping and tax preparation without eliminating accountants, who have moved up the value chain toward advisory, forensic and judgment-intensive work.
… A job that scores as 40% “exposed” to AI in these rankings doesn’t have a 40% chance of vanishing. It is more likely to be reorganized.
… Technology automates, accelerates or reduces the cost of specific tasks within a job, allowing employees to spend more time on higher-value activities. As a result, output expands and #wages often rise."
#LaborMarkets

Wage Expectations and Job Search https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:386&r=&r=eur
"While average misperceptions are relatively small, substantial shares of job seekers display pronounced optimism or pessimism.
… Treated job seekers who were initially strongly optimistic increase their search effort and find jobs more quickly. Conversely, initial pessimists narrow the geographic scope of their search in response to the treatment, which accelerates re-employment—consistent with mitigated spatial search frictions.
… accounting for job seekers’ subjective beliefs is essential when studying search behavior
… suggest that job seekers seem to jointly determine multiple dimensions of their search strategy—including their wage demands, search intensity, and geographic scope. Exogenous changes in one domain can spill over into others
… Both initially optimistic and initially pessimistic job seekers find employment more quickly when holding more accurate beliefs."
#LaborMarkets #jobtech #wageTransparency

Measuring Labor Market Tightness: Data Update and New Web Feature https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/01/measuring-labor-market-tightness-data-update-and-new-web-feature/
"… Traditional tightness measures such as vacancies over unemployment (V/U) also do a relatively good job in predicting wage growth until about 2015, when V/U begins to falter. The steady deterioration in the forecasting performance of vacancy-based measures such as V/U and V/ES on its own aligns with earlier work finding that the relationship between vacancies and other labor market variables has shifted over time.

Our findings suggest that the HPW Index and the quits rate are the best predictors of wage growth in the next quarter. Going forward, the web feature https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/labor-market-tightness launched today will update both a quarterly and a monthly series of HPW in conjunction with the ECI, to track wage pressures in real time"
#LaborMarkets #wages

The Trust Equation: It’s Not Just Who You Hire, It’s How You Hire https://behavioralscientist.org/the-trust-equation-its-not-just-who-you-hire-its-how-you-hire/
"Talent represents the most valuable asset of any firm, and candidates evaluate employers as rigorously as vice versa. #AI threatens to further depersonalize human interactions. To thrive in an era that threatens to erode human interactions, organizations must create consistently valuable experiences.

The competitive advantage isn’t in fighting harder in the “war for talent” but in building systems that cultivate #trust, performance, and, with it, an employer brand at scale. Every organization claims to put people first. The ones that succeed are those whose processes prove it."
#LaborMarkets #jobtech #hiring

Who Works from Home After the Pandemic? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2025n18&r=&r=bec
"… while worker preferences are relevant, the results suggest that it is the nature of jobs that is the main factor determining who has the option to work from home.
… strong associations between #WFH full days and both occupation and industry
… findings suggest that the growth in WFH may be driving further increases in labour market inequality. WFH comes with obvious benefits for workers such as reduced commuting costs and improved work-family fit, and these benefits are mostly being captured by workers in higher paying jobs and occupations, employed on permanent contracts, and working full-time hours.

That said, those taking advantage of the option to work from home might face long-term career penalties, with evidence from choice experiments suggesting that fully remote workers are at a disadvantage in terms of future promotion and salary increase prospects"
#LaborMarkets #wages

Labor market size and occupational skill match https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2025_024&r=&r=lma
The urban wage premium may be related to a city-size match quality gap:
"… occupational skill-match quality is higher for individuals living in large local labor markets. Conditional on skills, differences in match quality explain around 30 percent of the city-size wage gap."
#LaborMarkets #wages

Bargaining power and #wages: Collective wage agreements and union membership in Germany https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:329630&r=&r=lab
"Even in an era of declining membership of #unions, their roles remain vital in addressing contemporary labor market inequalities.
… #bargainingPower exerts a significant influence on both individual wage levels and wage inequality in Germany
… both collective wage agreements and union membership… raise wage levels at the national level.… this effect is regionally heterogeneous: Collective wage agreements continue to be linked to higher wages at the regional level, whereas the relationship is weakened or disappears altogether for union membership.
… collective wage agreements go along with lower overall wage #inequality, while union membership compresses wage inequality mainly at the lower end of the distribution."
#LaborMarkets

There's Nothing in the Air https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22294
"the urban wage growth premium: substantially faster wage growth in larger cities
… part of this premium is driven by the firms that choose to sort themselves into bigger cities
… eliminating the job ladder mechanism, the urban wage growth premium falls by 94.1% after accounting for firms and coworkers.
… results challenge the view that cities generate human capital spillovers “in the air,” suggesting instead that urban wage dynamics reflect the #sorting of firms and workers and the pace of job #mobility."
#wages #matching #LaborMarkets

#Signaling in the Age of AI: Evidence from Cover Letters https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2509.25054&r=&r=lma
"While #AI tools allow freelancers to produce more polished and tailored applications with less effort, our findings suggest that they fundamentally reshape how employers interpret cover letters. The widespread adoption of AI-assisted writing diminishes the informational value of cover letters, weakening their role as a hiring signal.

Workers with weaker pre-AI writing skills saw larger improvements in cover letters, indicating that AI substitutes for workers’ own skills. Although only a minority of applications used the tool, the overall correlation between cover letter tailoring and callbacks fell by 51%, implying that cover letters became less informative signals of worker ability in the age of AI."
#LaborMarkets #jobtech

The Role of Firms and Occupations in Wage Inequality https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc25:325461&r=&r=eur
"… find that between-occupation job variance is roughly as important as within-occupation between-firm variation, and that between-occupation sorting is significantly more important than within-occupation between-firm sorting in our context.
… 21% of total log-wage variance can be attributed to between-occupation pay variance and sorting of workers between occupations, while 9% can be attributed to variance within occupations between firms and sorting between workers and firms within occupations.
… suggests that occupation-based factors, such as #heterogeneity in skill prices, are quantitatively more important than firm pay dispersion.
… in higher-wage occupations and larger labor markets firm-level heterogeneity is relatively more important, although the importance of firm-worker sorting does not vary.
… individual-level differences are significantly more important in both higher-wage occupations and larger labor markets."
#LaborMarkets #wages #occupationalClassification #skills

Are decredentialed jobs a route to upward mobility? https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4kgj9_v1&r=&r=bec
"… for some jobs, a degree requirement may be a rough and ready #screening tool, filtering out many qualified candidates, or even a result of occupational closure.
When workers move into jobs that have recently dropped degree requirements they receive an earnings premium of around $6000 per year relative to similar workers moving into never-credentialled jobs. This is despite the fact that when employers decredential they deskill the job and reduce pay by around 20%.
Non-college workers hired into these roles are more socio-economically disadvantaged than the college-educated workers they replace
… results show that the movement toward decredentialing holds promise for boosting earnings mobility for workers.
Despite these benefits, most employers that drop explicit college requirements continue to hire college graduate applicants into those positions.
… suggestive evidence that employers struggle to integrate new non-college hires and that they face backlash from existing employees."
#LaborMarkets #wages #vocationalTraining #credentials

Labour market power, firm productivity, and the immigrant-native pay gap https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:327118&r=&r=lma
"Immigrants earn 16% less than native-born workers in Canada, and this pay gap is similar in many other high-income countries.
… immigrants earn 77% of their MRPL on average, compared to 84% for natives

First, differences in labor supply curves between immigrants and natives contribute significantly to the pay gap. Second, immigrants tend to work at more productive firms, driven by their tendency to work in cities where firms are more productive on average. Finally, interactions between firm productivity and labor supply are important, implying methodologies that rely on additive separability assumptions will likely produce biased decompositions of the immigrant-native pay gap."
#LaborMarkets #wages #discrimination

Do Employers Comply with Pay Transparency Requirements in Job Postings? https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2025/10/do-employers-comply-with-pay-transparency-requirements-in-job-postings/
"… employers ignore #payTransparency requirements; roughly a quarter of job listings covered by these laws fail to include salary information."
#wages #LaborMarkets #oja

Developing a New European Indicator of Potential Skill Shortages https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18133&r=&r=eur
"… estimate that approximately 2% of job vacancies in the European Union are likely to experience skill shortages.
… there is substantial variation across occupations, ranging from 5.1% for ICT professionals to approximately zero in more elementary occupations. There is also substantial variation in the estimated incidences of potential skill shortages at member state level, ranging from over 10% in Luxembourg to under 1% in Estonia and Poland.
… analysis shows that occupations that are most likely to experience #skillShortages also tend to experience relatively high rates of changes in skill requirements over time"
#LaborMarkets #skills

Explaining the Dynamics of the Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:994&r=&r=lab
"Comparing our results with the US, we find that the gender gap in lifetime earnings has remained significantly smaller in France
.… while the US has seen a striking narrowing of the gap between cohorts across the whole distribution (except at the very top), in France, we observe a sharp narrowing only at the top and bottom of the distribution for the youngest cohorts.
.… In France, lifetime earnings have increased across the entire distribution for both men and women. In contrast, in the US, men below the median have experienced losses.
… the contribution of unobserved factors decreases across cohorts but increases across the distribution
… this sharp decline in the unexplained part has been accompanied by a growing role of observable factors. The most important effect comes from… the decline in the years worked full time, which has slowed down the convergence across genders.
… At the bottom of the distribution, the minimum wage helps reduce earnings disparities, while #workingTime remains the primary driver of the gender gap in lifetime earnings. At the top, our results are consistent with a glass-ceiling effect, which has weakened over time.
… the increase in educational attainment and the narrowing of the gender gap in returns to #education have also contributed to the reduction in the gender pay gap"
#LaborMarkets #wages #gpg

Decomposing Trends in the Gender Gap for Highly Educated Workers https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2457&r=&r=lab
"… much of the large gap in earnings between the 1931 and 1950 cohorts is due to a cohort specific “residual component” that shifts the gender gap in earnings by the same amount for all college graduates. Most of the decline is within occupation, especially for the early cohorts. The residual gap varies little for the 1951 to late 1970s birth cohorts, after which it resumes its decline.
… the extensive literature on the long term trend in the gender gap suggests changes in total labor experience at a given age, hours per week, lower fertility, shifting gender norms and preferences affecting occupation choice, and reduced #discrimination against women have all played a role.
… gender differences in the relative return to undergraduate and graduate degree combinations contribute to the gender gap, but very little to the decline in the gender gap over the full time period
… the education gap is large for the early cohorts but declines substantially and is an important part of the narrowing of the gender gap. However, to our surprise, this decline is mostly offset by cohort trends in the relative returns to specific fields that favored men"
#LaborMarkets #wages #gpg

Equal Pay for Similar Work https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.17111
"… the equilibrium effects of Equal Pay for Similar Work (EPSW) policies dominate their direct effects
… imposing these policies may lead to unintended outcomes.
… EPSW targeted specifically to equalize pay across protected classes of workers leads to firms segregating their workforce in equilibrium to avoid the bite of the policy. Although discriminatory forces may lead to pay gaps across groups without EPSW, #segregation caused by EPSW results in the minority group of workers in a labor market receiving even lower relative #wages"
#LaborMarkets #gpg #discrimination

People are using ChatGPT to write their applications; HR is using AI to read them; no one is getting hired.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/09/job-market-hell/684133/
"Online #hiring platforms have made it easier to find an opening but harder to secure one: Applicants send out thousands of AI-crafted résumés, and businesses use #AI to sift through them. What Bumble and Hinge did to the dating market, contemporary human-resources practices have done to the job market. People are swiping like crazy and getting nothing back.

…recommends old-fashioned networking: asking recruiters out for coffee, going to in-person job events, and surveying friends and former employers for leads."
#jobTech #LaborMarkets

Companies are rethinking online job applications, seeking quality over quantity
https://archive.ph/Vn52u#selection-559.0-574.0
"Companies fed up with the low-quality, sometimes fraudulent submissions that flood applicant-tracking systems are reaching back in time for hard-to-hack recruiting methods. Classified ads are just one tack.
Others include: leaning harder on references; making application forms so cumbersome that only serious candidates will complete them; and posting openings on niche job boards instead of the most popular ones.

… All these tools for applicants to get seen are backfiring, forcing me to go to longer and longer lengths to filter out the noise and #AI fraud,"

#jobTech #LaborMarkets #classifieds

Against the Standard https://archiv.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/volltextserver/36879/8/Cubel_Against_dp764_2025.pdf
"… in the absence of feedback, women are less likely than men to benchmark their performance against a standard of excellence. This is inefficient because women who are likely to obtain increased rewards choose a low reward scheme instead.
… When feedback is provided and the standard is set by peers, this gender gap closes. However, the gap re-emerges, and even widens, when the standard of excellence is set by experts.
… If standards are set by experts and committees are perceived as male-dominated, a gender gap will exist in the award of promotions, grants or recognition. Understanding the differential impact of standards and feedback provision can help to design more inclusive competitive processes and bridge gender gaps in labour market outcomes."
#ExperimentalEcon #LaborEconomics #wages #gpg #LaborMarkets