https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/03/tasmania-redistribution-draft-scraps.html Tasmania Redistribution: Draft Scraps The Franklin Divide #politas

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/why-did-one-nation-win-11-seats-in.html Why Did One Nation Win 11 Seats In Queensland 1998 But None In 1998 Federal?

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/tall-cories-bernardis-bunkum-about.html

Tall Cories: Bernardi's Bunkum About Preferences

#saparli

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/emrs-what-happens-when-you-take-mess.html

#EMRS: What Happens When You Take A Mess And Then Throw In One Nation? #politas

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/emrs-what-happens-when-you-take-mess.html

#EMRS: What Happens When You Take A Mess And Then Throw In One Nation? #politas

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/south-australia-2026-what-can-right.html South Australia 2026: What Can The Right Still Win? #saparli

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/farrer-by-election-2026.html

#Farrer By-Election 2026

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/demosau-status-quo-ish-poll-but-is.html

#DemosAU: Status Quo-ish Poll, But Is There An Elephant Outside The Room? #politas

Ley to resign from Parliament in a few weeks. By-election coming for #Farrer

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/02/not-poll-reset-1-of-2026-ley-rolled.html

Not-A-Poll Reset 1 of 2026: Ley Rolled

Voting in new round now open in sidebar.

@HardBeingGreen @tallyroom Good stuff.

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-low-impact-of-independent.html

The Low Impact Of Independent Preferences In Labor's 2025 Federal Win

@ibk Relatively few new candidates make more than a point of positive difference to their party. Bad candidates however can do more damage than that

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2026/01/poll-roundup-what-do-we-do-with-split.html Poll Roundup: What Do We Do With A Split Coalition ... Or A Rampant One Nation?

Sidebar at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au now includes a 2025 election prefs Labor vs ON shadow-2PP estimate. See update at https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/09/2025-2028-2pp-aggregate-methods-page.html for methods details.

@SueBursztynski yes especially when I then join in and say "ha! you tried putting words about me into the mouth of grok and failed!"

Can talk about whether ON is more competitive than L-NP vs ALP on shadow-2PP (formula I used for this graph is preliminary and might be a bit harsh on ON, I've got more to do on it).

What's more interesting is their shadow-2PP is accelerating. And has been doing so all term.

Voice referendum poll graph had a kitten

@ibk ta, I've really had a gutful of these people, they've been terrible today on their supposedly sacred day as well!

@SueBursztynski It is unfortunately quite suggestible. Though when people try to make it say things and fail, it is extremely funny. I've had people try really hard to get Grok to slag me off and get replies like "Kevin Bonham is a highly regarded non-partisan election analyst who presents factual information about elections. There is no evidence that (whatever poster has alleged) is true ..."